AGP Executive Report

South Africa Macro & Rates: The SARB raised rates to 7.25% as inflation risks climbed (fuel and transport pressures), while growth remains fragile after a 0.2% Q2 slowdown. Zimbabwe AfCFTA Push: Acting President Mohadi urged Zimbabwe to turn regional value chains into industrial output, jobs and livelihoods under AfCFTA. Nigeria Power Debt Relief: Africa Finance Corporation co-advised a $550m Series 2 bond to clear Nigeria’s power sector arrears and restore liquidity across the value chain. Airtel Money London IPO: Airtel Africa says its mobile money arm plans a secondary IPO listing on the London Stock Exchange, keeping Airtel Africa as a long-term strategic shareholder. Zambia Copper Waste Recovery: Konkola Copper Mines awarded a contract for a tailings-leach plant to recover ~70,000 tonnes of copper annually, positioning it as Africa’s largest of its kind. Remittances & Institutions: Research highlights that remittances only boost domestic revenue when institutions and financial systems are strong. Liberia Power Access: Liberia set a target to reach 75% electricity access by 2029–30, while warning system losses must be cut for sustainability. Climate & Displacement: ECOWAS warned climate change and insecurity are driving mass displacement and destabilising the region. AfCFTA Fault Line: A Nigeria–South Africa dispute is raising concerns that political tensions can spill into trade and investment, threatening integration momentum.

Monetary Policy Shock (South Africa): The South African Reserve Bank lifted the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25%, pushing the prime lending rate to 10.75% as fuel-linked inflation risks rise; households and borrowers are set to feel higher repayments. Digital Finance & Payments: Equity Mobile App added biometric payment authorisation via face ID or fingerprint, while Airtel Money confirmed plans to float on the London Stock Exchange (expected valuation around $9bn, raising about £600m). SME Finance Expansion (Cameroon): Access Bank and the International Trade Centre included Cameroon in a 14-country programme to expand SME finance, market access and skills—starting with a Ghana pilot. Energy & Clean Cooking Investment: Kenya will host the Africa Clean Cooking Summit in January 2027, with a stated $600m institutional clean cooking investment opportunity. Infrastructure Delivery Bottleneck (South Africa): Infrastructure South Africa says only ~16% of public infrastructure tenders were concluded in the past year, blaming weak procurement conversion and internal departmental issues. UN & AU Cooperation: The AU and UN renewed agreements to strengthen operational support and knowledge exchange. Tech for Investors: ArcPoint expanded its institutional intelligence platform for modern investors across London, Ottawa, Zürich and Cape Town.

Energy Finance: South Africa says reviving mothballed state refineries will cost about $8bn, with talks on potential funding from Afreximbank among others, as the Central Energy Fund weighs upgrades and restart plans. FX & Rates: The rand is subdued ahead of inflation data and a likely 25bp SARB rate hike, keeping investors focused on the inflation path. Fintech Capital Markets: Airtel Money confirms plans for a London IPO, aiming to list separately on the LSE and potentially raise up to $800m, valuing the payments unit around $8–9bn. Mining & Livelihoods: Ghana’s gold economy spotlight turns to artisanal and small-scale mining, arguing that trust-based formalisation and better governance are key to reducing conflict and improving outcomes. Sovereign & Development Finance: Nigeria’s $300m DRE Fund enters commercial operation to scale off-grid and mini-grid power under Mission 300. Corruption & Assets: A Nigeria-focused investigation links 61 officials to 284 US properties worth about $271m, reigniting pressure on anti-graft enforcement. Kenya Banking Data: Kenya’s high-value bank accounts rose to 781,977 (KSh 500k+), highlighting wealth concentration even as overall momentum softens.

Monetary Policy Shock: Nigeria’s central bank cut its key interest rate to 23% from 26.5%, the biggest reduction in two decades, as inflation cools and FX reserves strengthen. Open Finance Push: Kenya’s Treasury and central bank drafted a National Payment System Bill to force banks and mobile money platforms (including M-Pesa) to share customer data with consent, enabling open finance. Capital for SMEs: EFG Holding secured a $40m four-year EBRD loan to expand MSME lending in Egypt, aiming to support jobs and inclusive growth. Power Sector Investment: Nigeria’s power minister outlined a new phase focused on grid stabilisation and a transmission super grid, with China-linked commitments for key projects. Dangote’s IPO Momentum: Aliko Dangote set 2028 for a planned IPO of his fertilizer business, while the refinery listing continues to draw cross-border interest. Trade & Growth: Afreximbank and ATDC signed a $500m facility to boost intra-African trade and distribution. Climate & Resilience: ECOWAS warned climate change and insecurity could drive displacement to nearly 32m by 2050. Banking Leadership: Coface South Africa appointed Paulo Solipa as COO to accelerate digital transformation and customer service.

F1 Returns to Africa: A South African consortium led by former Sibanye-Stillwater CEO Neal Froneman is working with Rothschild & Co. on a bid to bring Formula One back to the continent, planning a R6.7bn motorsport complex near Cape Town. Healthcare & Diagnostics: South Africa’s lab medicine sector is set to expand as hospital infrastructure investment scales, with market growth projected to reach US$48.7m by 2029. AfCFTA Jobs Push: Zimbabwe’s tripartite forum says AfCFTA must deliver decent work, backed by financial-sector reforms to lower funding costs and steer credit to productive sectors. Dangote Capital Markets Wave: Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO is drawing retail financing demand, while Dangote also confirmed a 2028 IPO for its fertiliser business targeting 12m tonnes urea capacity. Digital Finance in East Africa: KCB is buying a 22.23% stake in Pesapal, strengthening its regional payments footprint. Trade Finance Boost: Afreximbank and ATDC signed a $500m global credit facility to expand commodity trade, logistics and distribution across Africa. Power Investment Theme: Dangote reiterated plans to invest $10bn+ in Africa’s power sector to tackle electricity poverty.

Dangote Power Push: Aliko Dangote says Dangote Group will invest over $10bn in Africa’s power sector in the next 3–4 years, aiming to tackle the continent’s electricity deficit and spur industrial growth. Trade Finance Boost: Afreximbank and ATDC sign a $500m Global Credit facility to finance buying, aggregation, logistics, warehousing and distribution of “Made-in-Africa” goods, supporting AfCFTA trade. South Africa Deal Scrutiny: Solar SA’s proposed R21.8bn all-cash bid for Omnia Holdings would shift ownership to Indian control and delist Omnia from the JSE/A2X if approved. Nigeria FX Watch: The naira opens largely flat as foreign portfolio investors dominate dollar liquidity, with the official rate edging up slightly while the parallel market gap narrows. Capital Markets Justice: Nigeria’s Investments and Securities Tribunal plans new rules and digitalisation to speed up cases and strengthen capital market justice. Uganda Refugee Funding Gap: Uganda’s parliament urges the EU to increase support as only 12% of a needed $850m refugee response budget is currently funded, straining health and education services. Anti-Corruption Tech: South Africa’s ISS launches an AI-backed Anti-Corruption Tracker to flag early risks linked to state capture and systemic corruption. Banking Expansion: OmniBSIC Bank relocates its Dome branch to a larger facility to improve customer experience. Energy-Climate Mobility: Spiro secures an extra $18m from the AfricaGoGreen Fund to expand electric motorcycles and battery-swapping infrastructure across Uganda and Rwanda.

Monetary Policy Watch (South Africa): Morgan Stanley says the South African Reserve Bank is more likely to hike rates by 25 bps to 7.25% on Sept. 23, citing renewed oil-price pressure that could keep inflation above target longer. Debt & Household Pressure (South Africa): A new Financial Pressure Index finds debt-review applicants are spending about 58% of take-home pay on unsecured debt repayments, with limited protection even for higher earners. Infrastructure Cost Shock (Nigeria): Nigerians are counting losses from bad roads and gridlock, with experts blaming a largely unpaved network for higher maintenance costs, supply-chain disruption and inflation pressure. Dangote Refinery IPO (Nigeria): Dangote Refinery has flagged off its NGX listing, pitching the offer as “no risk” for investors and pointing to expansion momentum. Cross-Border Payments (Africa/China): Saudi Arabia exits the BIS mBridge project, while Africa deepens yuan links—Standard Bank is authorised to clear renminbi across 19 countries. Trade Data (Uganda): Uganda’s export earnings rose 10.2% y/y in July to $1.40bn, led by gold, cocoa and flowers. Capital Markets (Liberia): Liberia’s UNGA week agenda spotlights women, youth, climate and diaspora—aimed at turning the country’s experience into policy influence.

Somalia Development Finance: Mogadishu hosted the Somalia Development Financing Forum as SDRB pushed a shift from recovery funding to investment-led growth, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud backing long-term finance for agriculture, energy, infrastructure and business. Dangote IPO Access: Kenyan investors face limited participation as Dangote’s Sh200.8bn refinery IPO is domiciled in Nigeria, with cross-listing curtailed; stockbroker Highcap Securities urged investors not to fear oversubscription ahead of the Oct. 13 close. UNGA Diplomacy & Finance: Nigeria’s Tinubu absence at UNGA 81 drew fresh political fire from Atiku Abubakar, while AU Commission Chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf arrived in New York to press for stronger African representation in the UN Security Council and international financial institutions. Sustainable Investment Push: Sahara Power’s Dr Kola Adesina told UNGA that assets tied to sustainable investment have reached $16.7tn globally, but Africa still faces a climate-finance gap needing innovative funding. Capital Markets: Nigeria’s NGX ended the week up 2.78% as 52 equities gained, with Financial Services driving most turnover. Policy & Oversight: A Nigeria audit-gap analysis highlighted rising revenue collection under Zacch Adedeji, but questioned whether citizens can trace spending through the audit system. Trade & Competition: Nigeria’s CPPE urged tighter review of foreign traders’ permits and quotas, warning Chinese participation in retail could squeeze local jobs and competition. Regional Ownership Agenda: GABI’s Unstoppable Africa 2026 in New York spotlighted local ownership and value retention as leaders seek to scale African investment and reduce foreign control of resources.

Renewables Industrial Push: Egypt signs with China’s SANY to build a 2,000MW wind project in the Gulf of Suez plus a local turbine manufacturing plant—positioning a “build-and-export” model for Africa’s renewable push. Energy Finance Deal: TotalEnergies and BlackRock’s GIP strike a $1.8bn partnership to unlock value from African oil & gas midstream assets via throughput-based tariffs. Green Hydrogen Seed Funding: AfDB selects four green hydrogen projects across Egypt, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa for $20m repayable support tied to ~$23bn investment plans. Circular Economy Investment Platform: East Africa launches a regional circular economy platform to coordinate policy and attract capital as waste generation doubles and recycling stays low. Banking & Capital Markets: Jordan Kuwait Bank issues a second $100m green bond with IFC as anchor investor, using performance-linked incentives for green construction. Regional Trade & Investment: COMESA chairmanship opportunity—Bulawayo can turn Zimbabwe’s upcoming COMESA leadership into an industrial and export gateway. Kenya Refinery Push: President Ruto to meet Dangote at UNGA to advance the Ksh2.2tn Lamu refinery, targeting major jobs and regional energy security. South Africa Banking Oversight: SARB faces pressure over whether it will require Capitec to pay a suspended portion of a fine. Africa Entrepreneurship: GEC+Africa 2026 in Cape Town spotlights “Connecting Africa” to link founders, investors and policy for faster finance access. Lithium Ownership Watch: Namibia’s local stake in the Karibib lithium project is highlighted as one percent of the buyer seeking approval. Drug Trade Accountability: Ghana’s security chief urges investigations to target the financiers and networks behind major drug consignments, not just couriers.

Cross-Border Payments: Egypt’s central bank governor Hassan Abdalla joined the 14th PAPSS Governing Council meeting in Nairobi, pushing wider participation by central and commercial banks and stronger oversight for safer cross-border payments. UNGA Investment Push: Kenya’s William Ruto heads to New York for UNGA 81 to drive Africa-focused financing and tech, spotlighting the Sh2.2tn Lamu refinery and an AI investment agenda. Trade, Insurance Skills: Afreximbank and ZEP-RE signed a three-year deal to expand training across trade finance, insurance, reinsurance and risk management. Capital Markets & Housing: ACEP Cameroun reported CFAF 803.6m profit for 2025, while Egypt’s housing initiative hit EGP 111.131bn financing for 723,604 customers as of July 2026. Digital Assets Regulation: Ghana opened Digital Asset Summit Africa, pitching a regulatory framework to scale trusted virtual-asset innovation. Energy & Transport: Nigeria’s Tinubu moves to accelerate affordable CNG transport to cut commuter costs, while energy dealmaking heads to Africa Energy Week in Cape Town next month. Food & Farming Debate: AGRA’s Green Revolution is again under fire as critics say it’s weakened crop diversity and failed to deliver promised productivity gains.

Dangote IPO Buzz: Nigeria’s retail rush into Aliko Dangote’s refinery shares is sparking viral memes and platform outages, with the “people’s IPO” letting investors buy as few as 10 shares at a low entry price. Banking Appointments: Access Holdings appoints Ifedayo Orimoloye as Executive Director, Risk Management at Access Bank, effective 21 September, as the lender doubles down on risk governance. Kenya FX Watch: Kenya’s shilling edged weaker as forex reserves fell about KSh 21bn week-on-week, though reserves still sit above the statutory import-cover minimum. World Bank Capital Push: The World Bank says it mobilised a record $112bn in private capital for developing economies in FY2026, with Africa’s total rising to about $22bn. Insurance Adoption Drive: AXA Mansard launches a Nigerian campaign to shift perceptions of insurance from “expense” to everyday protection. Health Systems Strain: South Africa’s NHLS faces a scramble for blood-testing providers after funds for pathology services ran out. Regional Security & Trade Risk: Houthi advances around the Red Sea raise new economic and security risks for Africa’s Red Sea states and shipping routes.

Banking & Capital Markets: CRDB Bank secured a $300m syndicated term loan after lenders committed about $744m, extending maturities with a new three-year tranche and broadening global participation. Energy & Industry Finance: Emir Sanusi pushed back on monopoly claims around Dangote’s “People’s IPO,” arguing Nigeria needs more refineries and inviting others to invest and build. Equity Markets: Nigeria’s Dangote mega-refinery launched Africa’s biggest IPO, offering 4.1bn shares at 525 naira, targeting about $1.62bn and aiming to turn retail investors into co-owners. Green Finance: EU, Netherlands and Fidelity Bank Ghana launched a €6.668m Green Innovation Fund to back Ghanaian SMEs adopting green tech and scaling for AfCFTA markets. Trade & Logistics: East Africa’s trade faces rising logistics costs as fuel, border delays and fragmented corridors squeeze competitiveness. Governance & Accountability: South Africa’s Madlanga commission marks a year since hearings on criminal justice corruption—its impact now hinges on what reforms follow. Agribusiness: Ghana’s Mahama disclosed plans for a Sentuo fertiliser plant to support farmers, with import substitution potential.

Urban Waste & Infrastructure: Johannesburg’s illegal dumpsites are swallowing roads as cities across Africa generate waste faster than municipalities can collect, recycle or dispose safely, with UN estimates saying over 90% of waste ends up in uncontrolled dumps. Banking & Credit Costs: Kenya’s President William Ruto urged banks to cut the cost of credit and widen access to financing for households and small businesses, even as lending rates have eased. Nigeria’s Dangote IPO Buzz: Kano’s Emir Sanusi II urged residents to invest in Dangote’s refinery IPO, while Nigeria’s retail frenzy crashed apps and sparked “people’s ownership” memes—alongside a sharp debate over affordability of petrol for the same investors. Public Finance & Housing Borrowing: South Africa’s government is preparing to borrow about E2.4bn from DBSA for civil servants’ housing, as it looks to reduce reliance on rentals. Debt & Accountability Pushback: Nigerian CSOs protested excessive borrowing, warning debt servicing is crowding out services and climate action. Digital Access Pressure: GSMA says entry-level smartphones in sub-Saharan Africa now cost about 76% of monthly income, threatening mobile internet adoption. World Bank Mobilisation: The World Bank Group says it mobilised a record $112bn in private capital for developing economies in FY26, with Africa’s share rising to about $22bn. Governance & Procurement: South Africa’s Constitutional Court struck down the 2024 public procurement law over insufficient public participation, keeping existing rules in place. Health Funding & Advocacy: The World Bank invited Kenyan youth-led groups to apply for up to Ksh434m for health and nutrition advocacy for women, children and adolescents.

Capital Markets & Retail Access: Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO opened to investors, targeting about ₦2.15tn, but it also stress-tested local fintech infrastructure as platforms like Bamboo, Cowrywise and InvestNaija reported outages amid a surge in app traffic. Development Finance: The World Bank says it mobilised a record $112bn in private capital in FY26, more than tripling FY22 levels, with Africa’s mobilisation rising to about $22bn. Governance & Procurement: South Africa’s Constitutional Court again scolded Parliament over the Public Procurement Act process, while Finance Minister Godongwana said reform remains a priority despite the ruling. Investor Confidence: Tanzania’s PM urged stronger domestic capacity to fund development as aid and concessional loans tighten, while businessman Rostam Azizi stressed predictable policies and credible institutions to attract capital. Digital Identity for Co-ops: DotCooperation and Forus Digital Cooperative partnered to roll out trusted .coop digital identities across African cooperatives. Elections Watch (Nigeria): The ADC alleged organised PVC-buying and voter suppression ahead of 2027, calling on INEC and security agencies to investigate.

Retail IPO Rush: Aliko Dangote’s refinery share offer opened in Nigeria, with retail investors buying minimum 10-share bundles as the $2.15tn naira-sized listing targets broad participation in Africa’s biggest industrial bet. Banking Risk Watch: Bank of Baroda faces closure pressure in Kenya after a court issues arrest warrants and an auction looms, adding to uncertainty over its cross-border operations. Payments Momentum: PAPSS says transaction volumes jumped about 1,000% year-on-year, with adoption set to deepen from 2027 as it connects central banks and banks across 30+ countries. SME Credit Gap (South Africa): A new SMME report shows survival is improving but scaling is blocked by hard-to-access funding, with most firms relying on self-financing and only small shares using bank loans or grants. Municipal Finance (South Africa): South Africa secured a $1bn New Development Bank loan to reform metro trading services, tying funding to independently verified performance targets. Trade & Insurance Capacity (Africa): Afreximbank and ZEP-RE sign a three-year deal to build skills in trade, insurance, reinsurance and risk management across Africa. Energy Transition (Nigeria): NUPRC says Nigeria aims to raise gas output to supply up to 70% of Africa’s demand, leveraging large reserves but needing investment and viable pricing. Investor Confidence (Zimbabwe): Ecobank Pan African Bank opens a new Harare head office as Zimbabwe pushes ease-of-doing-business reforms to remove investment barriers. Fintech Benchmark: Dubai tops a global FinTech ranking in the latest Global Financial Centres Index, reinforcing its role as a regional finance hub.

World Bank Leadership: Nobel laureate Michael Kremer has been named World Bank chief economist, tasked with scaling proven development solutions as debt, higher rates and weaker aid pressure Africa. Africa Finance Reform Push: Africa is calling for faster, fairer debt restructuring, better climate finance and more domestic capital mobilisation, including pension and insurance funds, to support jobs and transformation. Trade & Export Finance: The US DFC approved a $500m trade facility with World Bank IFC support, aiming to unlock up to $20bn in US exports to emerging markets including Africa. Leasing for Growth: Afreximbank and Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) are partnering on a $650m African leasing platform backed by a 25-aircraft portfolio. Dangote IPO Spotlight: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery public offer is drawing retail investor rush and political endorsements, while regulators warn about scams targeting investors. Energy & Minerals: Botswana approved a $140m integrated battery minerals chemicals complex, while Africa’s gas and LNG summit heads to Maputo in November to push investment and local value. Governance & Integrity: A World Bank specialist urged financial vetting of senior criminal justice officials amid concerns about corruption and weak asset recovery. South Africa Municipal Rescue: Johannesburg’s treasury plans a three-year fiscal intervention to stabilise public finances ahead of local elections.