AGP Executive Report

Central Bank Pressure Point: South Africa’s inflation ticked up to 4% in April, with fuel-driven supply shocks raising the stakes for the SARB just as it tries to avoid second-round price effects. Public Safety & World Cup Readiness: In Atlanta, APD and AFRD chiefs briefed on 2026 FIFA World Cup safety, stressing “if you see something, say something.” Ghana Games Fallout: Ghana’s 2023 African Games forensic audit flags GH¢580m in irregularities and cites former sports minister Mustapha Ussif and others for recovery actions—Ussif denies wrongdoing. Regional Trade & Digital Rails: AfCFTA’s ADAPT pilots launch in Kenya, Morocco and Nigeria to build interoperable identity, payments and trusted data exchange for cross-border trade. Kenya Startup Tax: Kenya proposes a 15% capital gains tax on foreign investor exits via offshore transfers, aiming to close an “indirect transfer” loophole. AfDB Savings Push: AfDB president urges urgent reforms to unlock Africa’s $4tn domestic savings, warning fragmented systems keep money from productive investment. Ebola Disruption: The India-Africa Forum Summit 2026 is postponed due to Ebola risks spreading from the DRC.

Ghana Cocoa Push: COCOBOD targets 650,000 tonnes for 2025/26, citing recovery after disease, illegal mining, weather shocks and financing limits, as it moves to a new pricing framework that pays farmers about 70% of the world price and looks to fund the full crop. South Africa Cost Pressure: With inflation at 4% and fuel relief set to fade, economists warn the SARB may lift rates again, squeezing already-stretched households. AfDB at the Centre: The AfDB expects growth to slow to 4.2% amid Middle East-driven fuel and food costs, while also urging reforms to unlock Africa’s $4tn in domestic savings. Trade Finance Boost: AfDB backs Access Bank Zambia with a $20m trade finance guarantee to unlock up to $240m in trade volumes for SMEs. Ebola Reality Check: In the DRC outbreak, 1 in 3 people at the epicentre reportedly doubts the virus is real, complicating containment as vaccine trials near clinical testing. Nigeria Market Mood: NGX adds $659.8m as banking and insurance stocks lift the rally. Ghana Governance Watch: Auditors flag GH¢580m irregularities tied to the 2023 African Games, including inflated contracts and procurement weaknesses.

Cybersecurity Crackdown: Interpol says Libya joined a regional “Ramses” operation that dismantled cyber-fraud networks across 13 Arab countries, identifying 3,867 victims, arresting 201 suspects and seizing nearly 50 servers. Africa Day Agenda: In Africa Day remarks, Zimbabwe’s President Mnangagwa tied the continent’s next steps to modern infrastructure, smarter water management and unity under Agenda 2063. Ebola Funding Push: South Africa pledged an initial $5m to back a $319m AU-led Ebola preparedness plan for June–November 2026 as Congo’s outbreak raises fears of wider spread. Senegal Debt Shock: Senegal named economist Ahmadou Al Aminou Lo as prime minister after sacking Ousmane Sonko, with the new government facing a debt load of 132% of GDP and an IMF loan freeze over misreported debt. Banking & Jobs: UBA commissioned a UNILAG innovation hub, while Nigeria’s mining revival and Q1 GDP growth (3.89%) kept investor attention on non-oil momentum.

AI & Data Readiness: South Africa’s GenAI shift from pilots to deployment is accelerating, but the BoG-backed message is clear: AI will only be as safe as the data foundations behind it, with trust, protection and recovery becoming the real battleground. Digital Finance Regulation: Ghana’s BoG governor pushed “licence passporting” to cut regulatory fragmentation, while Kenya’s Finance Bill faces backlash over a proposed 16% VAT on digital financial services that could push users back to cash. Market Oversight: The JSE moved to tighten rules on broker access to reduce the risk of rogue trading and errors. AfDB Under Pressure: The AfDB annual meeting opens with shrinking aid and an Ebola cloud, as the bank urges a new push to fund Africa’s roughly $400bn annual development gap from African resources. Connectivity & Trade: ITU’s Africa forum kicked off in Victoria Falls on affordable connectivity; meanwhile, Sahara Group began Mauritania bunkering to strengthen the maritime corridor. Food & Tariffs: SA sugar milling starts strong, but Grain SA and Sacota are escalating legal action over delayed wheat tariff changes.

Health Tech Push: New rapid tests are being rolled out across Africa to speed up diagnosis and cut deadly transmission of infections like HIV, syphilis and hepatitis—because earlier detection means earlier treatment. Skills & Jobs Alarm: Edo State’s Obaseki warns Africa’s projected 2.8bn population growth could trigger a skills and employment crisis unless education systems deliver real job-ready talent. Sugar Tax Pressure: Nigeria’s CAPPA launches “Sweet Poison” and renews calls for tougher sugary drinks taxes to curb rising non-communicable diseases. Sports & Diplomacy: Morocco pardons Senegal fans jailed over AFCON final violence, while South Africa’s Mamelodi Sundowns win the CAF Champions League. Fiscal Tightening: South Africa’s Treasury signals no further fuel levy relief as it rebalances after the fuel-price intervention. Banking Shift: Standard Bank overtakes Capitec and FirstRand to become Africa’s most valuable bank by market cap. Climate Funding Gap: A report estimates Africa needs $277bn a year for climate adaptation and mitigation. Nigeria Debt Snapshot: Nigeria remains the World Bank’s third-largest IDA borrower at $18.5bn.

Benin Power Shift: Former finance minister Romuald Wadagni was sworn in as Benin’s new president, promising continuity after a decade of growth but persistent inequality and insecurity in the north. Gauteng Crime Pressure: South Africa’s Gauteng DA says kidnapping syndicates are growing bolder, citing SAPS figures showing 27 kidnappings daily and Gauteng driving most ransom cases. Xenophobia Fallout: In Pretoria, Ghanaian nationals vented fear and legal uncertainty to the foreign affairs minister amid rising attacks in South Africa, underscoring the human cost of migration tensions. Football Governance Clash: Safa expelled four suspended NEC members after they took their dispute to court before exhausting internal processes. Digital Finance Trust: Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama warned that without trust, digital finance is “just technology,” urging regulators and market players to build credibility and transparency. Tech Funding Push: Africa Finance Corporation launched a $100m fund to back African-managed tech firms and reduce reliance on non-African investors. Ebola Aid Worry: Experts warn US aid cuts could weaken Ebola surveillance and response in DRC and Uganda.

Africa Day & Youth Push: Ahead of May 25, a Zimbabwe-based diplomat urged Africans under 25 to lead industrialisation using mining, agriculture and ICT, tying the theme to water and sanitation goals. Digital Finance Reality Check: A new Ghana study finds mobile money and other digital tools help small firms most when they’re built into daily operations—not just used for payments—while another report warns broadband rollouts struggle in Africa’s huge informal economy. Payments Integration: Bank of Ghana Governor Dr Asiama renewed the call for integrated, interoperable African payment systems to cut cross-border costs, with stablecoins floated for pilots. Nigeria Business Pressure: SBM Intelligence says insecurity is now the top operational threat to Nigeria’s business climate, crushing confidence. Ebola Alert: Africa CDC warns 10 additional countries are at risk as the DRC outbreak spreads, alongside a $314m funding appeal. Senegal Politics: Senegal’s president fired PM Sonko and dissolved government after months of tension, adding uncertainty amid debt stress. Financing & Trade: Afreximbank reported strong Q1 results, while Nigeria approved deep-sea port projects to curb cargo losses.

Connectivity Shift: Cruise lines and airlines are already moving to more reliable high-speed internet for remote operations, and the same tech push is now being framed as the next step for households. Energy & Growth: A Nairobi energy summit backed new solar and wind deals aimed at easing power shortages and expanding electricity access. Ghana’s Macro Turnaround: President Mahama says Ghana has climbed from Africa’s 11th to 8th largest economy, citing lower inflation, stable FX, higher reserves and faster GDP growth. Payments Integration: Ghana’s central bank governor called for integrated African payment and settlement systems to cut cross-border transaction costs, with stablecoins on the table. South Africa Credit Boost: Moody’s lifted South Africa’s outlook to positive, pointing to improving fiscal performance and reforms. Tax Capacity: ATAF’s 2025 report says its support helped generate $907.8m in tax assessments, with $685.8m collected. Nigeria Debt Snapshot: Nigeria’s IDA exposure fell to $18.5bn but remains among the top borrowers. Senegal Politics: President Faye dismissed PM Sonko and dissolved the government, raising uncertainty in a closely watched democracy.

Energy & Inflation Shock: As Middle East tensions keep energy prices jumpy, South Africa’s central bank and markets are bracing for higher rates to protect the rand and households—while investors look for “sure footing” as oil and shipping disruptions ripple into fertiliser and logistics. Maritime Security: Nigeria’s Deep Blue push is paying off, with NIMASA and the Navy graduating 177 trained maritime security personnel to sustain the drop in piracy incidents. Jobs Drive: South Africa’s National Treasury opened the 13th Jobs Fund funding round, targeting demand-led growth in the green and informal economy as unemployment stays high. Trade Finance Rules: New BCEAO FX regulations are reshaping how banks handle trade finance in Togo, tightening documentation and controls. Ebola Readiness: The World Bank is mobilising staff and a rapid financing package for the DRC outbreak, with Uganda reporting cases. Power Debt Risk: Eskom warns Johannesburg and City Power over a R6.8bn arrears bill, raising blackout fears for the region’s business hub. Digital Payments Disruption: Nigeria’s USSD banking changes and anti-fraud controls are leaving customers stranded without transfers unless they also have airtime.

Stablecoin push: Mastercard and Yellow Card are teaming up to scale stablecoin-enabled payments across Nigeria and other EEMEA markets, targeting remittances, B2B settlement, loyalty and treasury use-cases with pilots involving banks and regulators. Banking momentum: Wema Bank says it’s aiming for Nigeria’s “tier-one” league as profits surge, while UBA doubles down on Liberia’s development agenda with new investment plans across ports, energy, digital transformation and SME finance. Trade finance resilience: Afreximbank reports a 25% Q1 profit jump to $268.9m, citing stronger trade finance demand and higher interest income. Payments growth backdrop: Global card payments are forecast to hit $56.4tn by 2033, and cross-border payments $414.6bn by 2034—both driven by faster digital adoption. Security and governance: South Africa’s police leadership moves to reset crime-fighting with a new Police Advisory Panel, even as Gauteng remains the epicentre of violent organised crime. Energy watch: Gas-export minister Ekperikpe Ekpo warns Africa risks shortages and weak industrialisation if exports outpace domestic gas use.

Ebola Alarm in DR Congo: WHO says the regional risk is high as the outbreak likely spread for months before detection, with 139 deaths feared from about 600 probable cases and aid arriving only now in conflict-hit Ituri. West Africa Coup Reality Check: ECOWAS admits it can’t reliably stop coups under today’s multipolar geopolitics, arguing earlier interventions worked when fewer external powers backed plotters. Tokenisation Push in South Africa: A new debate is heating up on whether tokenising real-world assets can revive economies—while warning of future protocol risks. Investec UK Ambition: Investec’s results show profit and dividend gains, but analysts say shifting from specialist lending to full-service UK private banking will be a tougher behavioural change. Energy & Finance Deals: China-Africa corridor talks pivot to industrial and green cooperation; Namibia signs a “for permanence” conservancy finance model; and Seplat doubles down on shareholder returns with a $1bn dividend target. Markets & Governance: Fitch flags Namibia debt rising to 66% of GDP in 2026, while WHO and AMA move to strengthen health-product regulation across Africa.

M&A & Listings: Dubai’s Averi Finance is in talks with South Africa’s Mantengu Ltd for a reverse takeover aimed at a Johannesburg listing, with Mantengu issuing 650m new shares and transferring oil & gas, renewables and digital infrastructure projects—Averi would hold 66.7% and targets revenue of $1bn in three years. Electricity Market Reform: South Africa’s Nersa has launched consultations on wholesale pricing methodology and transitional generation pricing/vesting contracts as it moves toward a more competitive SAWEM-style power market. Energy Tech Partnerships: Mezzanine and Open Access Energy (OAE) signed a reseller deal to scale virtual wheeling via OAE’s Energypro platform. South Africa Social Sector: SASSA dismissed 43 officials over fraud, theft and corruption, while a former Mpumalanga lawyer faces court over alleged theft of over R2m from grieving clients. Ebola Watch: South Africa pledged R41.2m to support the Ebola response in DRC and Uganda as the outbreak expands. Cross-border Tensions: Ghana postponed the evacuation of citizens from South Africa after registrations surged to 800+, citing screening and flight-permit requirements. Business & Consumer Pressure: Disney+ raised South Africa’s monthly premium from R159 to R179 from 4 June. Finance & Wealth: Investec is expanding private banking in South Africa and the UK to attract high-net-worth clients with integrated wealth offerings.

Nuclear funding talks: Eskom has entered exploratory discussions with the World Bank and other funders on financing a multibillion-dollar nuclear build, aiming to submit a request for information for up to 5,200MW within a year as cash-strapped power demand pressures mount. Digital ID push: South Africa’s Home Affairs tabled a ZAR 13.8bn budget to scale Smart IDs and digital visas, building on millions of IDs issued and pilots for electronic travel authorisations. Payments and inclusion: MyMoolah launched a unified core wallet for cash-in/cash-out, bills and vouchers, while Visa rolled out new dispute-resolution tools to cut merchant costs and fraud losses. Trade infrastructure: QNB Egypt led a $225.5m syndicated loan for East Port Said Port marine berths, and AfCFTA’s ADAPT pilots begin in Kenya, Morocco and Nigeria to speed intra-African trade. Market moves: Nigeria’s NGX rebounded on banking and industrial buying. Regional pressure points: EAC released its Lake Victoria Basin report warning of worsening pollution and planning gaps, as fuel-driven living-cost stress continues across parts of Africa.

Digital Finance Shift: MTN CEO Ralph Mupita says Africa’s money access is moving beyond USSD toward smartphone and app-based ecosystems—pushing the next wave of digital lending, payments and embedded finance, but only with stronger consumer protection. Inflation Pressure: South Africa’s inflation quickened to 4% in April, blamed largely on fuel-driven Gulf-linked shocks, raising the odds of tighter borrowing conditions. Small Business Push: South Africa’s small business ministry is ramping support with a R3.036bn budget aimed at backing 1m MSMEs and cooperatives, targeting youth, women and township firms. Energy & Grid Build: WEG and EVC will finance hybrid energy projects in South Africa from R5m to R500m, while MTN South Africa plans ZAR 480m for network upgrades in Free State and Northern Cape. Health Security: South Africa pledged US$2.5m to Africa CDC’s Ebola response fund for DRC and Uganda. Property Mood: Absa’s homeowners sentiment index hit a decade high as confidence climbs. Consumer Safety: Kwikot warns against refurbished or second-hand geysers, citing non-compliance risks.

Digital Infrastructure Leap in DRC: DE-CIX has expanded the Africa Congo Internet Exchange (ACIX) in Kinshasa by adding a new datacentre presence at OADC Texaf’s FIH1 facility, positioning ACIX as a neutral hub for ISPs, mobile operators, cloud and content players—and a first distributed IX model for the country. Security Shock in Nigeria: US and Nigerian forces renewed strikes against ISIS in northeastern Nigeria, killing 175 fighters over days and targeting senior leaders tied to attack planning and finance, with no reported harm to troops. AfCFTA Push for Faster Integration: UN projections say full AfCFTA implementation could lift intra-African trade by about 45% by 2045, adding nearly $276bn, as Lomé hosts a workshop focused on customs reforms and market access. Energy Pressure on Growth: Samia Suluhu Hassan urged reliable, affordable power for industrialisation and digital growth at a nuclear energy summit in Kigali, while ECA warned AfCFTA can’t deliver on intermittent electricity. AI and Data Race: Yango launched Yango Tech across Africa with AI and digital infrastructure for businesses and public services, while Kenya’s AI summit doubles down on building local AI infrastructure and talent.

Tax Court Shock: South Africa’s SARS won a State Capture-linked locomotive tax case, upholding additional assessments and a 200% understatement penalty for 2013–2018—while the court backed SARS’s ability to reopen years where fraud or non-disclosure was involved. China Trade Push: China’s zero-tariff access for 53 African countries is already showing up in real exports, with Kenya’s avocados landing in China after the May 1 start. Energy Investment Momentum: South Africa’s green hydrogen-ammonia push advanced with selection of a $1bn electrolyser/ammonia loop solution as final investment decision work ramps up. Social Spending: South Africa tabled a R302bn Social Development budget for 2026/27, with R293bn for monthly grants and the SRD extended to March 2027. AI + Jobs: Standard Chartered says it will cut 7,000+ roles over four years as it leans harder on AI and automation. Regional Integration Tech: EAC and IGAD are stepping up digital systems integration to boost trade and cross-border payments.